An Exercise in Possibilities

Considering the possibilities is something I like to do when an ancestor appears in few records, is "lost," or when the "facts" I have don't add up.  In cases like the one below I imagine as many possibilities as I can and then list the next research steps to take. 

My ancestor in this exercise is William Doyle.  His name, death year of 1844, his wife's name (Martha Ray), and his occupation of coal miner come from family records.  The only record I've found for him is an online transcription of his marriage to Martha Reay in 1825.

His absence from records include

• the 1841 U.K. Census.  His wife Martha and five children live in Bedlington, Northumberland.
• an 1844 death record (though there are plenty of other William Doyles indexed online but none in 1844). 
• a birth record or hint of a birth year.  (The only basis for estimating a birth year is his marriage year.)

Possibilities for William's absence with his family from the 1841 U.K. Census are...

Possibility #1:  He was temporarily working in another mine in another city or county (based on the assumption that he was coal miner as per family legend).
Next Steps:

• Look at every William Doyle in the census to see if any were coal miners.
• Look for one who was living alone, in a boarding house, or with relatives.
• Look at birth years (assuming a birth year between 1795 and 1805 based on the 1825 year of marriage).
• Learn the names and locations of other coal mines then look for him there.

Possibility #2:  He died before the 1841 census.
Next Steps:

• Look for a death record between 1838 and 1841.  (His youngest child was born in 1839.)
• Were deaths recorded in newspapers?
• If he died in a mine accident there may be another kind of death record in addition to a civil land church record.

Possibility #3:  He was in the hospital due to an injury or illness.
Next Steps: 

• Learn whether patients in hospitals were enumerated there or at home.
• Identify contemporary hospitals local to Bedlington where Martha and the children were living in 1841.
• Learn whether there are records of mining accidents in collieries in England in the 1840s.  If so, look for William.

Possibility #4:  He was in prison (or debtors' prison).
Next Steps:

• How would he have been enumerated if in prison?
• Would newspapers have listed prisoners, have had articles about court cases, etc.?
• Learn whether there are prison records, where to find them, and how to access them.
• Determine the location of prisons local to Bedlington.

Possibility #5:  He and Martha separated, divorced, or William deserted.
Next Steps:

• Are there divorce records for the 1840s and, if so, where might I find them?
• Would divorces have been announced in contemporary newspapers?

Did you think of any possibilities I didn't think of or any additional research I didn't include?  I often add to these lists as I continue to think about the ancestor's situation and circumstances, especially when my first ideas don't reveal new information.

As you know, if your are family historian, this research will take some time and effort to complete and, of course, I hope the first possibility reveals the information I want to find.

I can search records and transcriptions of records on FamilySearch, Ancestry, and Find My Past.  I may also learn more about possible records (prison, hospital, and newspaper research) by asking questions on the U.K. Facebook groups.

When you're stumped do you list possibilities, too?

--Nancy.

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